mapping the chain…
Track record
Every directional call in every published map, scored against actual price moves — absolute andrelative to SPY over the same window. Wins and misses both stay on the board — that's the point.
26%
Beat SPY
283 calls scored vs benchmark
296
Calls tracked
across 19 maps
62%
Hit rate · 7 days
283 evaluated
40%
Hit rate · 30 days
283 evaluated
Average vs SPY by tier
The thesis is that names further down the chain outperform once the ripple reaches them. Here's whether that's actually been true — including when it hasn't.
-8.5%
Tier 1
44 calls
-8.3%
Tier 2
42 calls
-5.9%
Tier 3+
111 calls
-13.8%
Sleeper plays
86 calls
Best calls
◎ sleeper play · +34.5% absolute · OpenAI files for IPO at a reported $852B valuation
◎ sleeper play · +31.7% absolute · Oracle Plans $70B AI Spending After Cloud Revenue Jumps 93%
◎ sleeper play · +27.6% absolute · Amazon's $17.5B AI Debt Raise Signals $200B Capex Supercycle
◎ sleeper play · +16.4% absolute · Supermicro Secures $7B to Unlock $39B AI Server Backlog
Worst calls
| Ticker | Call | Exposure | 7d | 30d | Since map | Map |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FN | benefits | Moderate | -4.8% ✗ | -16.5% ✗ | -19.1% | Amazon to Sell Trainium AI Chips Externally, Challenging Nvidia |
| ALGM | benefits | Speculative | +16.2% ✓ | -16.1% ✗ | -17.0% | Amazon to Sell Trainium AI Chips Externally, Challenging Nvidia |
| RMBS | benefits | Speculative | +2.1% ✓ | -21.4% ✗ | -23.3% | Amazon to Sell Trainium AI Chips Externally, Challenging Nvidia |
13 calls awaiting their 7-day mark. Sleeper plays and international listings without reliable price data are marked “tracking unavailable” rather than silently dropped.
Methodology: prices are daily closes from public market data; the baseline is the price at map publication, and “vs SPY” subtracts the SPY move over the same window (SPY and QQQ are snapshotted with every map). Mixed-direction calls are excluded from hit-rate math. Price movement has many causes — a hit rate is evidence of process quality, not a promise of returns. Educational analysis only, not financial advice.