mapping the chain…
Track record
Every directional call in every published map, scored against actual price moves — absolute andrelative to SPY over the same window. Wins and misses both stay on the board — that's the point.
22%
Beat SPY
302 calls scored vs benchmark
316
Calls tracked
across 20 maps
61%
Hit rate · 7 days
302 evaluated
39%
Hit rate · 30 days
302 evaluated
Average vs SPY by tier
The thesis is that names further down the chain outperform once the ripple reaches them. Here's whether that's actually been true — including when it hasn't.
-7.0%
Tier 1
46 calls
-11.7%
Tier 2
44 calls
-16.1%
Tier 3+
120 calls
-27.5%
Sleeper plays
92 calls
Best calls
tier 5 · +63.8% absolute · Neura Robotics Raises $1.4B Led by Nvidia & Amazon
◎ sleeper play · +45.6% absolute · OpenAI files for IPO at a reported $852B valuation
tier 1 · +36.8% absolute · Microsoft Unveils Majorana 2 Quantum Chip, Targets Commercial Viability by 2029
tier 1 · +36.3% absolute · Amazon's $17.5B AI Debt Raise Signals $200B Capex Supercycle
Worst calls
| Ticker | Call | Exposure | 7d | 30d | Since map | Map |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULBI | benefits | Speculative | -4.8% ✗ | -4.9% ✗ | -6.2% | Anthropic Signs $45B, 460MW Compute Deal with Nscale in West Virginia |
| PRIM | benefits | Moderate | -5.0% ✗ | -6.7% ✗ | -14.2% | Anthropic Signs $45B, 460MW Compute Deal with Nscale in West Virginia |
| AGX | benefits | Moderate | -7.4% ✗ | -19.4% ✗ | -27.3% | Anthropic Signs $45B, 460MW Compute Deal with Nscale in West Virginia |
14 calls awaiting their 7-day mark. Sleeper plays and international listings without reliable price data are marked “tracking unavailable” rather than silently dropped.
Methodology: prices are daily closes from public market data; the baseline is the price at map publication, and “vs SPY” subtracts the SPY move over the same window (SPY and QQQ are snapshotted with every map). Mixed-direction calls are excluded from hit-rate math. Price movement has many causes — a hit rate is evidence of process quality, not a promise of returns. Educational analysis only, not financial advice.